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    What's the probability of Zodz sharing a BNC with another member in Cora?

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    What's the probability of Zodz sharing a BNC with another member in Cora?

    Post by Jon on 2015-04-27, 00:05

    <@Zodz> probably hundreds of people use this BNC

    Okay, so let's assume that by "hundreds", Zodz means approximately 500. I think that's a reasonable approximation. If it was any more than 1000 then he would have been unlikely to have used the noun "hundreds". Regardless, the probabilities are so small that the number we use as an interpretation for "hundreds" is all but inconsequential.

    There are 3 billion people that use the internet. If only 500 of those 3 billion share the same BNC as Zodz, then that gives a probability of 1.7x10^-7 (0.00000017) that any one person using the internet shares the same BNC as Zodz.

    Again, using an approximation, but again the number we use is somewhat irrelevant when talking about such small probabilities. If we say that there are approximately 300 people that regularly use Cora's IRC (yes I'm being generous) then we can model the probability that one or more persons within cora uses the same BNC as Zodz as a binomial.
    Spoiler:
    X ~ B(300, 0.00000017)
    P(X>=1)
    =1-P(X=0)
    =1-[300C0(0.00000017)^0(1-0.00000017)^300]
    =1-(1-0.00000017)^300
    =0.00005
    Thus giving the probability of 0.00005 that Zodz shares a BNC with one or more persons that use Cora's IRC.


    Last edited by Jon on 2015-04-27, 00:17; edited 1 time in total
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    Re: What's the probability of Zodz sharing a BNC with another member in Cora?

    Post by Joe on 2015-04-27, 00:16

    andy just do something pls..
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    Re: What's the probability of Zodz sharing a BNC with another member in Cora?

    Post by Luke on 2015-04-27, 03:31

    The same probability of winning the lottery in 6 countries in the same day. (Australia, USA, Canada, England, New Zealand, Germany)
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    Re: What's the probability of Zodz sharing a BNC with another member in Cora?

    Post by Allen1 on 2015-04-27, 03:39

    I share a BBC with cannons.

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    Re: What's the probability of Zodz sharing a BNC with another member in Cora?

    Post by Cannons on 2015-04-27, 03:47

    Allen1 wrote:I share a BBC with cannons.

    Gtfo thirsty ass thot


    Last edited by Cannons on 2015-04-27, 04:07; edited 1 time in total
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    Re: What's the probability of Zodz sharing a BNC with another member in Cora?

    Post by Connor on 2015-04-27, 03:52

    Allen1 wrote:I share a BBC with cannons.

    Lmfao
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    Re: What's the probability of Zodz sharing a BNC with another member in Cora?

    Post by KSHMR on 2015-04-27, 04:44

    Why are we using the number 3 billion? Wouldn't it be more accurate to use the number of people who use SwiftIRC, then look at the number of BNC users, then look at the breakdown of how many people use which BNC service provider? For example, it would be more likely for someone to have the same BNC provider on Swiftirc if they both used sBNC from #bnc. This math just seems flawed to me
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    Re: What's the probability of Zodz sharing a BNC with another member in Cora?

    Post by Allen1 on 2015-04-27, 04:59

    KSHMR wrote:Why are we using the number 3 billion? Wouldn't it be more accurate to use the number of people who use SwiftIRC, then look at the number of BNC users, then look at the breakdown of how many people use which BNC service provider? For example, it would be more likely for someone to have the same BNC provider on Swiftirc if they both used sBNC from #bnc. This math just seems flawed to me

    Lmfao a wild 19 post rank shows up. Probably Zodz's third account.
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    Re: What's the probability of Zodz sharing a BNC with another member in Cora?

    Post by Zodz on 2015-04-27, 05:06

    Allen1 wrote:
    KSHMR wrote:Why are we using the number 3 billion? Wouldn't it be more accurate to use the number of people who use SwiftIRC, then look at the number of BNC users, then look at the breakdown of how many people use which BNC service provider? For example, it would be more likely for someone to have the same BNC provider on Swiftirc if they both used sBNC from #bnc. This math just seems flawed to me

    Lmfao a wild 19 post rank shows up. Probably Zodz's third account.

    that's the spirit. You've been surrounded in zodz the whole time
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    Re: What's the probability of Zodz sharing a BNC with another member in Cora?

    Post by FeuerKaiser|Warriors on 2015-04-27, 06:04

    WTF HAHAHAHAH ALLEN IS FUNNY AF
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    Re: What's the probability of Zodz sharing a BNC with another member in Cora?

    Post by Dogs>Cats on 2015-04-27, 07:23

    Allen1 wrote:
    KSHMR wrote:Why are we using the number 3 billion? Wouldn't it be more accurate to use the number of people who use SwiftIRC, then look at the number of BNC users, then look at the breakdown of how many people use which BNC service provider? For example, it would be more likely for someone to have the same BNC provider on Swiftirc if they both used sBNC from #bnc. This math just seems flawed to me

    Lmfao a wild 19 post rank shows up. Probably Zodz's third account.
    you know he is trying to increase that probability number that jon came up with
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    Re: What's the probability of Zodz sharing a BNC with another member in Cora?

    Post by Luke on 2015-04-27, 07:31

    Allen1 wrote:
    KSHMR wrote:Why are we using the number 3 billion? Wouldn't it be more accurate to use the number of people who use SwiftIRC, then look at the number of BNC users, then look at the breakdown of how many people use which BNC service provider? For example, it would be more likely for someone to have the same BNC provider on Swiftirc if they both used sBNC from #bnc. This math just seems flawed to me

    Lmfao a wild 19 post rank shows up. Probably Zodz's third account.
    I had about 100 when I got ranked Wink
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    Re: What's the probability of Zodz sharing a BNC with another member in Cora?

    Post by Dogs>Cats on 2015-04-27, 08:22

    Luke wrote:
    Allen1 wrote:
    KSHMR wrote:Why are we using the number 3 billion? Wouldn't it be more accurate to use the number of people who use SwiftIRC, then look at the number of BNC users, then look at the breakdown of how many people use which BNC service provider? For example, it would be more likely for someone to have the same BNC provider on Swiftirc if they both used sBNC from #bnc. This math just seems flawed to me

    Lmfao a wild 19 post rank shows up. Probably Zodz's third account.
    I had about 100 when I got ranked Wink
    i didnt know who u were
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    Re: What's the probability of Zodz sharing a BNC with another member in Cora?

    Post by Luke on 2015-04-27, 08:41

    Dogs>Cats wrote:
    Luke wrote:
    Allen1 wrote:
    KSHMR wrote:Why are we using the number 3 billion? Wouldn't it be more accurate to use the number of people who use SwiftIRC, then look at the number of BNC users, then look at the breakdown of how many people use which BNC service provider? For example, it would be more likely for someone to have the same BNC provider on Swiftirc if they both used sBNC from #bnc. This math just seems flawed to me

    Lmfao a wild 19 post rank shows up. Probably Zodz's third account.
    I had about 100 when I got ranked Wink
    i didnt know who u were
    still don't
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    Re: What's the probability of Zodz sharing a BNC with another member in Cora?

    Post by Jon on 2015-04-27, 08:46

    KSHMR wrote:Why are we using the number 3 billion? Wouldn't it be more accurate to use the number of people who use SwiftIRC, then look at the number of BNC users, then look at the breakdown of how many people use which BNC service provider? For example, it would be more likely for someone to have the same BNC provider on Swiftirc if they both used sBNC from #bnc. This math just seems flawed to me
    no. The number of people on swiftIRC are irrelivent. If Zodz had said "probably hundreds of people use this BNC on SwiftIRC" then yes. But he did not. We needed the probability of any one person having the same BNC as Zodz. Regardless of what they do on the internet. The Maths is sound. Trust. If you're unhappy with the logic of that then message me on IRC when you next see me.

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    Re: What's the probability of Zodz sharing a BNC with another member in Cora?

    Post by Marky on 2015-04-27, 11:51

    BNC or vHost?
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    Re: What's the probability of Zodz sharing a BNC with another member in Cora?

    Post by Jon on 2015-04-27, 17:08

    Marky wrote:BNC or vHost?
    Well, Zodz said BNC.
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    Re: What's the probability of Zodz sharing a BNC with another member in Cora?

    Post by Slash on 2015-04-27, 19:46

    I hate Zodz but that doesn't mean you're right Jon.

    I'm going to agree with Kash here.

    "If Zodz had said "probably hundreds of people use this BNC on SwiftIRC" then yes. But he did not"

    Zodz comment is irrelevant to calculating the probability someone shared a BNC with him
    You should be taking the amount of people who use IRC. Not who use the internet

    That's like having a math competition of 10 girls and 10 boys and saying calculate the probability of a boy to win the competition, and you take the world's population of boys into account



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    Re: What's the probability of Zodz sharing a BNC with another member in Cora?

    Post by Cannons on 2015-04-27, 19:53

    Slash wrote:I hate Zodz but that doesn't mean you're right Jon.

    I'm going to agree with Kash here.

    "If Zodz had said "probably hundreds of people use this BNC on SwiftIRC" then yes. But he did not"

    Zodz comment is irrelevant to calculating the probability someone shared a BNC with him
    You should be taking the amount of people who use IRC. Not who use the internet

    That's like having a math competition of 10 girls and 10 boys and saying calculate the probability of a boy to win the competition, and you take the world's population of boys into account


    What you're doing now is inferring that Zodz meant only on Swiftirc and not everyone in the world. It's ironic because what I learned yesterday from you was you don't like to infer very much even when something is very obvious (The Zodz situation).

    Just like Jon said, if Zodz had said only Swiftirc then the math would be totally different, but he just said "hundreds of people". Even though it's quite obvious what he meant, we can't just use logic and say that's what he meant right? We'd need hard evidence...
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    Re: What's the probability of Zodz sharing a BNC with another member in Cora?

    Post by Slash on 2015-04-27, 19:58

    Cannons wrote:
    Slash wrote:I hate Zodz but that doesn't mean you're right Jon.

    I'm going to agree with Kash here.

    "If Zodz had said "probably hundreds of people use this BNC on SwiftIRC" then yes. But he did not"

    Zodz comment is irrelevant to calculating the probability someone shared a BNC with him
    You should be taking the amount of people who use IRC. Not who use the internet

    That's like having a math competition of 10 girls and 10 boys and saying calculate the probability of a boy to win the competition, and you take the world's population of boys into account


    What you're doing now is inferring that Zodz meant only on Swiftirc and not everyone in the world. It's ironic because what I learned yesterday from you was you don't like to infer very much even when something is very obvious (The Zodz situation).

    Just like Jon said, if Zodz had said only Swiftirc then the math would be totally different, but he just said "hundreds of people". Even though it's quite obvious what he meant, we can't just use logic and say that's what he meant right? We'd need hard evidence...

    No I am not, I started off with saying "Zodz comment is irrelevant to calculating the probability someone shared a BNC with him"

    I'm just saying, calculate the probability of Zodz sharing a BNC with someone. <-- This is the question

    Right here, we don't use the world's population when doing so. Why would we? They are not even involved in it, like in my earlier example, we would just use the number of boys actually taking part in the competition, in this case 10. 1/2 chance


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    Re: What's the probability of Zodz sharing a BNC with another member in Cora?

    Post by Cannons on 2015-04-27, 20:06

    Slash wrote:
    Cannons wrote:
    Slash wrote:I hate Zodz but that doesn't mean you're right Jon.

    I'm going to agree with Kash here.

    "If Zodz had said "probably hundreds of people use this BNC on SwiftIRC" then yes. But he did not"

    Zodz comment is irrelevant to calculating the probability someone shared a BNC with him
    You should be taking the amount of people who use IRC. Not who use the internet

    That's like having a math competition of 10 girls and 10 boys and saying calculate the probability of a boy to win the competition, and you take the world's population of boys into account


    What you're doing now is inferring that Zodz meant only on Swiftirc and not everyone in the world. It's ironic because what I learned yesterday from you was you don't like to infer very much even when something is very obvious (The Zodz situation).

    Just like Jon said, if Zodz had said only Swiftirc then the math would be totally different, but he just said "hundreds of people". Even though it's quite obvious what he meant, we can't just use logic and say that's what he meant right? We'd need hard evidence...

    No I am not, I started off with saying "Zodz comment is irrelevant to calculating the probability someone shared a BNC with him"

    I'm just saying, calculate the probability of Zodz sharing a BNC with someone. <-- This is the question

    Right here, we don't use the world's population when doing so. Why would we? They are not even involved in it, like in my earlier example, we would just use the number of boys actually taking part in the competition, in this case 10. 1/2 chance

    This whole thread that Jon made wasn't to calculate the probability of a person in SwiftIRC sharing the same BNC as Zodz. Jon calculated the probability of Zodz statement with the parameters that Zodz set.

    <@Zodz> probably hundreds of people use this BNC

    Parameters:
    People that use the internet: ~3 billion - Guesstimation (You can't use the world population because not everyone uses the internet)

    Out of those people, "hundreds" (Estimation of 500) use the BNC

    Jon literally took what Zodz said, without any other inference or assumptions, and did the math.

    If you can think of any OBVIOUS parameters that would change the math that's fine, but the only one I see is people that use the internet because obviously you need internet access to use a BNC.

    Trust me, I know what it feels when people can't connect the dots, maybe Jon is satirizing those who can't either.


    Last edited by Cannons on 2015-04-27, 20:15; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : obviously not obvious z.z)
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    Re: What's the probability of Zodz sharing a BNC with another member in Cora?

    Post by Slash on 2015-04-27, 20:10

    Cannons wrote:
    Slash wrote:
    Cannons wrote:
    Slash wrote:I hate Zodz but that doesn't mean you're right Jon.

    I'm going to agree with Kash here.

    "If Zodz had said "probably hundreds of people use this BNC on SwiftIRC" then yes. But he did not"

    Zodz comment is irrelevant to calculating the probability someone shared a BNC with him
    You should be taking the amount of people who use IRC. Not who use the internet

    That's like having a math competition of 10 girls and 10 boys and saying calculate the probability of a boy to win the competition, and you take the world's population of boys into account


    What you're doing now is inferring that Zodz meant only on Swiftirc and not ev
    eryone in the world. It's ironic because what I learned yesterday from you was you don't like to infer very much even when something is very obvious (The Zodz situation).

    Just like Jon said, if Zodz had said only Swiftirc then the math would be totally different, but he just said "hundreds of people". Even though it's quite obvious what he meant, we can't just use logic and say that's what he meant right? We'd need hard evidence...

    No I am not, I started off with saying "Zodz comment is irrelevant to calculating the probability someone shared a BNC with him"

    I'm just saying, calculate the probability of Zodz sharing a BNC with someone. <-- This is the question

    Right here, we don't use the world's population when doing so. Why would we? They are not even involved in it, like in my earlier example, we would just use the number of boys actually taking part in the competition, in this case 10. 1/2 chance

    This whole thread that Jon made wasn't to calculate the probability of a person in SwiftIRC sharing the same BNC as Zodz. Jon calculated the probability of Zodz statement with the parameters that Zodz set.

    <@Zodz> probably hundreds of people use this BNC

    Parameters:
    People that use the internet: ~3 billion - Guesstimation (You can't use the world population because not everyone uses the internet)

    Out of those people, "hundreds" (Estimation of 500) use the BNC

    Jon literally took what Zodz said, without any other inference or assumptions, and did the math.

    If you can think of any OBVIOUS parameters that would change the math that's fine, but the only one I see is people that use the internet because obvious you need internet access to use a BNC.

    Trust me, I know what it feels when people can't connect the dots, maybe Jon is satirizing those who can't either.


    Oh k.

    But like, if we calculated what i'm saying it would make more sense in this situation.
    Zodz is just dumb for saying that then


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    Re: What's the probability of Zodz sharing a BNC with another member in Cora?

    Post by Cannons on 2015-04-27, 20:14

    Slash wrote:
    Cannons wrote:
    Slash wrote:
    Cannons wrote:
    Slash wrote:I hate Zodz but that doesn't mean you're right Jon.

    I'm going to agree with Kash here.

    "If Zodz had said "probably hundreds of people use this BNC on SwiftIRC" then yes. But he did not"

    Zodz comment is irrelevant to calculating the probability someone shared a BNC with him
    You should be taking the amount of people who use IRC. Not who use the internet

    That's like having a math competition of 10 girls and 10 boys and saying calculate the probability of a boy to win the competition, and you take the world's population of boys into account


    What you're doing now is inferring that Zodz meant only on Swiftirc and not ev
    eryone in the world. It's ironic because what I learned yesterday from you was you don't like to infer very much even when something is very obvious (The Zodz situation).

    Just like Jon said, if Zodz had said only Swiftirc then the math would be totally different, but he just said "hundreds of people". Even though it's quite obvious what he meant, we can't just use logic and say that's what he meant right? We'd need hard evidence...

    No I am not, I started off with saying "Zodz comment is irrelevant to calculating the probability someone shared a BNC with him"

    I'm just saying, calculate the probability of Zodz sharing a BNC with someone. <-- This is the question

    Right here, we don't use the world's population when doing so. Why would we? They are not even involved in it, like in my earlier example, we would just use the number of boys actually taking part in the competition, in this case 10. 1/2 chance

    This whole thread that Jon made wasn't to calculate the probability of a person in SwiftIRC sharing the same BNC as Zodz. Jon calculated the probability of Zodz statement with the parameters that Zodz set.

    <@Zodz> probably hundreds of people use this BNC

    Parameters:
    People that use the internet: ~3 billion - Guesstimation (You can't use the world population because not everyone uses the internet)

    Out of those people, "hundreds" (Estimation of 500) use the BNC

    Jon literally took what Zodz said, without any other inference or assumptions, and did the math.

    If you can think of any OBVIOUS parameters that would change the math that's fine, but the only one I see is people that use the internet because obvious you need internet access to use a BNC.

    Trust me, I know what it feels when people can't connect the dots, maybe Jon is satirizing those who can't either.


    Oh k.

    But like, if we calculated what i'm saying it would make more sense in this situation.
    Zodz is just dumb for saying that then

    Exactly
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    Re: What's the probability of Zodz sharing a BNC with another member in Cora?

    Post by Jon on 2015-04-27, 20:31

    Slash wrote:
    Cannons wrote:
    Slash wrote:
    Cannons wrote:
    Slash wrote:I hate Zodz but that doesn't mean you're right Jon.

    I'm going to agree with Kash here.

    "If Zodz had said "probably hundreds of people use this BNC on SwiftIRC" then yes. But he did not"

    Zodz comment is irrelevant to calculating the probability someone shared a BNC with him
    You should be taking the amount of people who use IRC. Not who use the internet

    That's like having a math competition of 10 girls and 10 boys and saying calculate the probability of a boy to win the competition, and you take the world's population of boys into account


    What you're doing now is inferring that Zodz meant only on Swiftirc and not ev
    eryone in the world. It's ironic because what I learned yesterday from you was you don't like to infer very much even when something is very obvious (The Zodz situation).

    Just like Jon said, if Zodz had said only Swiftirc then the math would be totally different, but he just said "hundreds of people". Even though it's quite obvious what he meant, we can't just use logic and say that's what he meant right? We'd need hard evidence...

    No I am not, I started off with saying "Zodz comment is irrelevant to calculating the probability someone shared a BNC with him"

    I'm just saying, calculate the probability of Zodz sharing a BNC with someone. <-- This is the question

    Right here, we don't use the world's population when doing so. Why would we? They are not even involved in it, like in my earlier example, we would just use the number of boys actually taking part in the competition, in this case 10. 1/2 chance

    This whole thread that Jon made wasn't to calculate the probability of a person in SwiftIRC sharing the same BNC as Zodz. Jon calculated the probability of Zodz statement with the parameters that Zodz set.

    <@Zodz> probably hundreds of people use this BNC

    Parameters:
    People that use the internet: ~3 billion - Guesstimation (You can't use the world population because not everyone uses the internet)

    Out of those people, "hundreds" (Estimation of 500) use the BNC

    Jon literally took what Zodz said, without any other inference or assumptions, and did the math.

    If you can think of any OBVIOUS parameters that would change the math that's fine, but the only one I see is people that use the internet because obvious you need internet access to use a BNC.

    Trust me, I know what it feels when people can't connect the dots, maybe Jon is satirizing those who can't either.


    Oh k.

    But like, if we calculated what i'm saying it would make more sense in this situation.
    Zodz is just dumb for saying that then
    Slash, you're wrong. The maths is correct. I'm certain. The only criticism is my approximations so that this could be modelled mathematically but as stated, those have negligible effect considering the scale of the probability. The point is that it's near impossible.

    The reason I used the global population is because every person in the world has an equal likelihood of joining our IRC channel. Forget SwiftIRC, it's irrelevant. By that logic everyone in the world, regardless of whether or not they're using SwiftIRC has a probability of 1.7x10^-7 (0.00000017) of sharing a BNC with Zodz. This applies to people that don't use SwiftIRC, in the same way that it applies to everyone that does use SwiftIRC but who do not use #CoraDyce, as well as those who do use SwiftIRC and who use #CoraDyce.

    With that in mind, assuming my approximation of Cora having 300 regular users is approximately accurate, we have a sample of 300 people (hence I've modelled n as equal to 300 in the binomial distribution) and a probability of each of them sharing a BNC with Zodz of 1.7x10^-7 (0.00000017) (hence I've modelled p as equal to 0.00000017 in the binomial distribution) because each of those 300 people that use the channel have that probability of sharing a BNC with Zodz.

    Happy?


    Cannons wrote:Trust me, I know what it feels when people can't connect the dots, maybe Jon is satirizing those who can't either.
    and no Cannons, I didn't make the assumption that what Zodz had meant was meant to only apply to users within SwiftIRC. Very few people have any need at all to use a BNC and those that do are going to be divided between the number of organisations that offer a BNC, so saying "hundreds" of people using the same BNC globally sounded approximately right to me considering the number of BNCs out there and the small number of people that actually want to use one. I would be very surprised if "hundreds" of people within SwiftIRC used the same BNC. I would actually be surprised if it was any more than 10.
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    Luke
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    Re: What's the probability of Zodz sharing a BNC with another member in Cora?

    Post by Luke on 2015-04-28, 01:20


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    Re: What's the probability of Zodz sharing a BNC with another member in Cora?

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